Publications

The efficacy of prostate-specific antigen screening: Impact of key components in the ERSPC and PLCO trials.

Author(s): de Koning HJ,  Gulati R,  Moss SM,  Hugosson J,  Pinsky PF,  Berg CD,  Auvinen A,  Andriole GL,  Roobol MJ,  Crawford ED,  Nelen V,  Kwiatkowski M,  Zappa M,  Luján M,  Villers A,  de Carvalho TM,  Feuer EJ,  Tsodikov A,  Mariotto AB,  Heijnsdijk EAM,  Etzioni R

Journal: Cancer

Date: 2018 Mar 15

Major Program(s) or Research Group(s): EDRG, PLCO

PubMed ID: 29211316

PMC ID: PMC5839977

Abstract: BACKGROUND: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening significantly reduced prostate cancer mortality (rate ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.91). The US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) trial indicated no such reduction but had a wide 95% CI (rate ratio for prostate cancer mortality, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.87-1.36). Standard meta-analyses are unable to account for key differences between the trials that can impact the estimated effects of screening and the trials' point estimates. METHODS: The authors calibrated 2 microsimulation models to individual-level incidence and mortality data from 238,936 men participating in the ERSPC and PLCO trials. A cure parameter for the underlying efficacy of screening was estimated by the models separately for each trial. The authors changed step-by-step major known differences in trial settings, including enrollment and attendance patterns, screening intervals, PSA thresholds, biopsy receipt, control arm contamination, and primary treatment, to reflect a more ideal protocol situation and differences between the trials. RESULTS: Using the cure parameter estimated for the ERSPC, the models projected 19% to 21% and 6% to 8%, respectively, prostate cancer mortality reductions in the ERSPC and PLCO settings. Using this cure parameter, the models projected a reduction of 37% to 43% under annual screening with 100% attendance and biopsy compliance and no contamination. The cure parameter estimated for the PLCO trial was 0. CONCLUSIONS: The observed cancer mortality reduction in screening trials appears to be highly sensitive to trial protocol and practice settings. Accounting for these differences, the efficacy of PSA screening in the PLCO setting is not necessarily inconsistent with ERSPC results. Cancer 2018;124:1197-206. © 2017 American Cancer Society.